Prediction markets have a few unique qualities that make them valuable for tracking elections: • They incentivize accuracy - people are rewarded primarily for being right (not eyeballs, power, etc) • They're peer to peer - people set the odds, not a gatekeeper • They're transparent - you can see the order book, the history, etc • They move in real time - odds update as soon as new information comes in That's why so many people and news outlets like CBS look to them during the midterms.

Example #1,000,000 of dude not understanding probability

PREDICTION MARKETS GAIN SUPPORT AS FAKE ELECTION POLLS RAISE CONCERNS Harry Crane, a Rutgers statistics professor, and Koleman Strumpf, a Wake Forest economics professor, argue in The Wall Street Journal that election polls deserve greater regulatory scrutiny than prediction markets. They cite Median Strategies and Wedgewood Polls, which reportedly published fabricated election data affecting campaign narratives and decisions.

Prediction markets give anyone willing to back their beliefs a voice. The take power away from the gatekeepers - the media, elites, pollsters - and give power back everyday people setting the odds. And it turns out, the people are more accurate than the gatekeepers.

Regulate polls, not prediction markets. There’s no evidence that betting harms election integrity, but fake surveys have done so this year, write Harry Crane @HarryDCrane and @KolemanStrumpf on.wsj.com/4i8zIKq

This is a big deal. I guess prediction markets are here to stay?

🚨 TODAY: Kalshi is now the preferred prediction market of the NBA.

The GOP shouldn't be counting on a poll miss to win the Senate (though it's possible!). Dems have actually been slightly more likely to outperform the polls in close Senate races since 1998. Same in 2018 (Trump's 1st midterm) & Dems outperformed in all 2022 close races.

America’s political class is hurtling toward an election that some fear could turn into yet another public opinion polling flop. Enter the prediction markets. In today’s Morning Money, a look at the prediction market election that is 2026: politico.com/newsletters/mor…

Big news for the NBA. Peer-to-peer trading a generally safer route for the league than whatever algorithms and shadow banning traditional sportsbooks have been cooking up for years. Really interested to see how this shakes out on a grander partnership scale long term.

Kalshi 🤝 NBA

There’s a reason prediction market adoption is accelerating. Sportsbooks have an inherently predatory incentive: they win when you lose. That drives a lot of bad outcomes for consumers: house-set prices, limits on winners, and VIP programs designed to keep losing customers playing. The incentives of markets are different. Exchanges take a small fee for facilitating trades between participants on an open market. The business depends on people choosing to trade, not on them losing. That changes the product. You can set the price you’re willing to trade at. Other participants can compete to offer you a better one. And you don’t get limited simply because you’re winning. An open exchange, where participants compete to offer the best prices, creates value for fans, traders, and businesses: • Sharps typically limited by sportsbooks can participate, helping improve forecasts that everyone from season ticket holders to local businesses uses to make decisions. • People and businesses can hedge risk at competitive prices, from a local bar that relies on a team’s playoff run to a national advertiser whose campaign depends on which teams advance. More businesses are using prediction markets this way. • Regular fans get better prices on the trades they want to make. These aren’t small differences. They’re what make an open exchange a fundamentally different product for consumers. People have recognized the difference. Excited to see the NBA recognize the value of the exchange model as well.

The NBA has partnered with Kalshi as a Preferred Prediction Market Exchange. Official NBA data to settle trades, stronger safeguards, and NBA branding on Kalshi. Fans come to Kalshi because open markets are a fairer way to trade basketball. Now, it’s Official.

Troy Jackson has a 61% chance to beat Susan Collins in the Maine Senate race, according to Kalshi traders. But how does the volume split on Troy Jackson differ by state? • All Americans: 61% • Mainers: 36% • Non-Mainers: 61%

The Kalshi prediction market currently gives: • @JamesTalarico a 64% chance of winning Texas’ Senate race. • @AbdulElSayed a 69% chance of winning Michigan’s Senate race. • Democrats a 63% chance of winning the Senate majority. Do you believe prediction markets more or less than polls? 🔗 kalshi.com/category/election…

While the markets favor Democrats to win both Senate (65%) and House (90%), people who correctly predicted Trump to win in 2024 are very bullish on Republicans this cycle. Is this the Trump effect, or is it structural?

new paper came out on the accuracy of prediction markets tldr, they are very accurate

Danny McBride in this ?? You know I gotta post the classic scene between Danny McBride and Craig Robinson struggling to keep a straight face while Will Ferrell goes completely off-script right in front of them on Eastbound & Down

Turns out Danny is onto something: Kalshi weather markets are more accurate than the top weather forecasts arxiv.org/abs/2609.23969 Open markets incentivize people to do extra research

Comedian Shane Gillis and Danny McBride star as Weathermen for Kalshi's new commerical

The Weathermen @Kalshi